Risks of gas production forecasting, using material balance equations

Abstract

The risks of forecasting of the main indicators of gas field development using the system of material balance have been estimated. According to the actual data, estimates of the impact of the components of material balance equations , the algorithm as a whole and the accuracy of the input data on the reliability of the gas withdrawal forecasting have been built. It has been shown that the predominant contribution to the variation of forecast indicators is related to the precision of the determination of initial recoverable gas reserves.